Several public opinion polls have been conducted in the Palestinian
territories over the past four years dealing with some of the major
political issues, such as the continuation of the al-Aqsa intifada,
confidence in the peace process, and the methods to achieve the
national goals of the Palestinian people. From the onset of the
al-Aqsa intifada up to the death of President Yasser Arafat, the
results have shown a consistent pattern in attitude among the
Palestinian respondents. Another topic - considered of lesser
importance - is the mood in the Palestinian street, defining the
level of optimism or pessimism of the Palestinian people regarding
their future, which showed a similar pattern of consistency.
According to a public opinion poll (Poll No. 49) conducted by the
Jerusalem Media and Communications Center (JMCC) in October 2003,
http://www.jmcc.org/publicpoll/results/2003/index.htm), a great
majority of Palestinians (76.8 percent) remained strongly or
somewhat supportive of continuing the intifada, a slight drop from
the 80.7 percent that was registered steadily throughout 2002.
Regarding the issue of Palestinian military operations against
Israeli targets, a sizable percentage of Palestinians (67.9)
believed that Palestinian military operations against Israeli
targets were a suitable response during the existing political
situation, compared to 64.6 percent in April 2003. Support for
suicide operations against Israeli civilians reached the high of 72
percent in March 2002.
With regard to optimism or pessimism, a great majority of
Palestinians (71.9 percent) stated they were pessimistic or very
pessimistic that a peaceful settlement to the Palestinian-Israeli
conflict would be reached. When asked what solution to the conflict
they favored most, 45.7 percent of the respondents said a two-state
solution, a slight rise from the 41.6 percent in March 2002.
A Striking Departure
However, results of the last two polls conducted by the JMCC in
December 2004, following Arafat's death show a striking departure
from the ones carried in the four previous years. A poll conducted
on December 8, 2004, showed that a majority (51.8 percent) of
Palestinians oppose military operations against Israeli targets and
consider them detrimental to Palestinian national interests,
compared with only 26.9 percent in June 2004.
Regarding the question of whether the intifada should continue or
not, a majority of 63.1 percent responded in the affirmative.
Nevertheless, a trend of steady decline in support for the intifada
can be observed: In June 2004, support had reached 69.7 percent, a
drop from 76.8 percent in October 2003. Poll No. 53,
http://www.jmcc.org/publicpoll/results/2004/no53.pdf, conducted on
December 20, 2004, also shows a noticeable decrease in support for
the continuation of both popular and military forms of the
intifada, which fell to 35.8 percent from 53 percent in April
2003.
As for the level of optimism or pessimism in the Palestinian
street, an ascending pattern in optimism can be detected among the
respondents concerning the future in general. A majority of 63.3
percent said [end of December 2004] they felt optimistic regarding
the future, compared with 59.4 percent at the beginning of the
month [December 2004] and 45.3 percent in June [2004].
As for the preferred solution to the conflict, the December 2004
poll showed that a majority of Palestinians (56.7 percent) said a
two-state solution was the best option.
Different, Yet Still the Same
A comparison between the results of the polls conducted during the
past four years and the last two surveys carried out in December
2004 can lead one into the trap of the Israeli and American
contention, namely, that the late president Arafat was an obstacle
to peace. Looking at the situation since Arafat's passing, however,
it is obvious that nothing has really changed on the ground. The
Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories is still there;
the siege is in place; the closure continues; the assassinations
persist; and the construction of the separation barrier has not
stopped.
On the Palestinian side, the same leadership remains. Abu Mazen
[Mahmoud Abbas] has now [January 2005] succeeded Arafat as
president of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA). All
indications point to the fact that he will follow in Arafat's path
in his adherence to the national requirements.
So what really changed? And why this sudden divergence in recent
poll results?
In the eyes of the international community, Arafat's death is the
end of an era marked by a lack of progress on the path to
peace.
Essentially, Arafat was deemed a hindrance to a peaceful solution,
by the U.S., which stated it overtly, and by Europe that expressed
it covertly; both parties thus concurring with Israeli
rhetoric.
Collating this perspective of the international community and the
changes in Palestinian public opinion, we may be able to reach an
explanation.
Despite Israeli intransigence and the duplicity of the
international community, the Palestinian people have shown
creativity in their utilization of various means to achieve their
national and legitimate rights. They used armed struggle; they used
negotiations; and they used popular resistance. All the while, the
international community scrutinized the Palestinian side, ignoring
the fact that it is Israel that is occupying Palestinian land. A
most recent example of the double-standards of the international
community is the proposal by British Prime Minister Tony Blair to
hold a conference in the U.K. for the rehabilitation of the
Palestinians in preparation for peace. Logic would have it that it
is the guilty party that is in need of rehabilitation, not the
victim.
Although the siege and closures are still in place in the West Bank
and the Gaza Strip, and despite of the attempt on the part of the
Israeli occupation to paralyze all aspects of Palestinian life, the
major changes mentioned above in the recent polls are proof of
Palestinian maturity. They show that Palestinians are not so much
hopeful as resolved to expose the international community for what
it is. The Palestinians are saying that although they continue to
suffer, they are ready to give the international community another
chance, but it will be different this time. There will be no room
for any shrewd diplomatic maneuvering. It was the wish of the
international community that Abu Mazen be elected president of the
PNA. He has succeeded in the past in bringing calm on the
Palestinian front; he will do it again. The London Conference goals
will be achieved. The parties will return to the negotiation table,
but this time with new realities on the ground: the separation
barrier, the official Israeli declaration during the Herzliya
Conference that major settlement blocs in the West Bank will remain
part of Israel, that Jerusalem is the eternal capital of the State
of Israel, and that there will be no right of return for the
Palestine refugees.
The changes in the opinion poll results of the last few months send
a clear message: The Palestinian people also want to give Abu Mazen
the opportunity to use his own strategy to achieve their national
rights and aspirations. Deep down, though, the Palestinians know
that nothing has changed since Arafat's death for what chance do
they have in the face of all the Israeli preconditions and the new
realities they have created on the ground?
We go back then to the same old scenario. Abu Mazen fails, but this
time Arafat is not here to be accused of thwarting his mission, as
the Israelis and the international community asserted when Abu
Mazen had his short stint as prime minister under Arafat. It
remains to be seen how the international community will then react.
Is it conceivable that the U.S. and Europe will point an accusing
finger at Israel for sabotaging Abu Mazen's undertaking? It is
highly unlikely.
A Reversible Shift
According to this scenario, it is easy to predict that the poll
results will revert to the level they had prior to Arafat's death.
The reason is simple. The figures reflected a normal and logical
tendency, simply because logic dictates that human dignity does
prevail. This means that as long as there is occupation, and as
long as negotiations stumble because of Sharon's positions and
unilateralism, Palestinian resistance will continue in all its
forms.
Thus, while the recent opinion polls reflect a shift in Palestinian
society, they can also be misleading. Israel and the international
community should not rush to congratulate themselves on the advent
of a new Palestinian leadership that purportedly will deliver the
goods this time. The opinion poll results come at a certain
juncture to send a strong political message. It basically says that
the Palestinian people want a just peace and they are ready to go
to great lengths to achieve this goal, but they need a partner to
meet them halfway to make this peace a reality.
The Palestinian people do not build great hopes on the
Palestinian-Israeli negotiation process. This time it is the
international community, not they, who will have to face the moment
of truth. Will it support a just peace based on international
legitimacy or back the last remaining occupation in the world? And
will it stop hiding behind hackneyed excuses, and see the glaring
truth at last?