A widely held view today is that peace is more distant from the
Middle East than it has ever been in the recent past. The main
protagonists in the conflict, Palestinians and Israelis, are
incurring a higher rate of casualties, and both Palestinian and
Israeli societies are finding themselves caught in a seemingly
endless dilemma.
For their part, Palestinians' life is anything but normal and/or
ordinary. For more than two years, they have been kept under tight
siege by the Israeli occupation authorities, rendering their
ability to move around from one location to another either life
threatening and/or untenable. The horror Palestinians have been
subjected to, has not only reminded them of the massacres and the
Nakbah (1948 Catastrophe) they have endured, but it has also
ruptured the fragile dream they have been nurturing of a peaceful
solution to the conflict with the Israelis.
On the other hand, Israelis may have never felt the bitter taste of
insecurity as much as they have recently. The fear of Palestinian
attacks has never been more concrete. No Israeli finds him/herself
safe or immune from danger. In essence, the traumas of the conflict
for Palestinians and Israelis have rarely been as crystal clear.
Vulnerability has become mutual for both societies, indeed.
Different Responses to Camp David
Yet, Palestinians and Israelis have responded differently to the
collapse of the desired peace, particularly since the failure of
the Camp David talks, summer 2000. Despairing of a seven-year-old
political process that had not succeeded in ridding them of a
rampant, ever-entrenched Israeli occupation, and believing that the
Lebanese model of successful resistance to occupation can be
replicated, the Palestinians launched the al-Aqsa Intifada with
stronger vigor and determination than previous Intifadas have
known. The tools, tactics and objectives they have employed and
adopted were further refined and more goal-oriented than the
symbolic measures of stone-throwing, for example, that
characterized the 1987 Intifada. The number of casualties among
Israelis continued to be on the rise and, while Palestinians did
not aspire to achieve a strategic balance of power with their
Israeli rival, they no doubt succeeded in achieving a strategic
balance of terror. No longer did Palestinians accept to be the only
recipients of injury and death.
Sharon the Savior!
Israelis, who have felt the depth of fear and horror, calculated
that their salvation would be in the election of Ariel Sharon as
prime minister, given his renowned reputation as a great general
and a fierce warrior. To the increasingly fearful Israelis, Sharon
represented their greatest and last hope for reaching a state of
security and safety. Sharon's history of swift, decisive moves
against Palestinians certainly made him look like the figure
capable of saving Israeli lives from Palestinian attacks. The
inability of his predecessor, Ehud Barak, to quell the Palestinian
Intifada in spite of his distinct record as a "general of tough
missions," helped make Sharon look like the only viable option that
could deliver on his promise of providing Israelis with the
stability and security they badly lack. In effect, Sharon, who is
viewed to have been the prime instigator of the Intifada as a
result of his provocative visit to the al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem,
made the Intifada the very process without which he could not
achieve his strategic objectives. While opening a can of worms for
Barak in late September 2000, which he himself inherited, Sharon
capitalized on the possibility of creating the kind of peace he
wants by liquidating and tarnishing any bases of Palestinian
resistance. Hence, his determined effort to bring peace to the
Israelis through concerted war on the Palestinians.
However, the winds of good fortune may not blow in the direction of
the ships of even great warriors like Sharon. The iron-fist policy
he has adopted against the Palestinians, notwithstanding, has
caused the number of Israeli casualties to rise dramatically since
he assumed office. The ratio of deaths among Israelis compared to
those among Palestinians dropped to 1-3 from 1-10 and 1-15 under
his predecessors, Barak and Benjamin Netanyahu, respectively. The
last hope, which Sharon symbolized for many Israelis, became their
greatest nightmare. This disillusionment, among other reasons, led
some army officers to consider refusing service in the occupied
territories at the cost of punishment. The psycho-political,
psychosocial and economic map of Israeli society has not witnessed
similar frailty before. Needless to say, the security promised to
the Israelis has encountered the same fate as the peace their
government had promised to achieve before the Intifada.
Sharon - The Great Mobilizer of Palestinian Society
The Palestinians have remained steadfast under occupation, despite
the fact that Sharon has inflicted on them more harm than they can
endure. Sharon is considered better than any other Israeli prime
minister before him because he has underlined the ferocity by
removing any fake masks off the face of the occupation. Sharon
turned out to be more blunt and forthcoming, as far as the
oppression of the Palestinians is concerned. Therefore, Palestinian
attacks on Israelis became greater in frequency, magnitude and in
sophisticated planning, resulting in more widespread
casualties.
Rather than quelling or even reducing the vigor of Palestinian
resistance, Sharon has served as the greatest mobilizer of
Palestinian society against the occupation, in spite of all the
damage he has caused. It has no longer become a far-fetched
conclusion that Sharon, by virtue of his reckless assault on
Palestinians, has created a societal factory of suicide bombers,
not only among Muslims, but also among Palestinian Christians,
hitherto unaccustomed to consider resorting to such measures.
Certainly, rather than opening the door for alternative leaders to
replace him, the siege Sharon has imposed on Yasser Arafat, and his
destruction of the Palestinian National Authority's presidential
compound in Ramallah, served as the greatest campaign of
popularization for the president of the PNA. No other Palestinian
figure stands a chance of mustering the legitimacy, popularity and
symbolism that Arafat possesses.
Fallout Against the Americans
Nevertheless, the ramifications of Sharon's ill-calculated policies
and moves have had considerable effects beyond the
Palestinian-Israeli arenas. The Arab world is more tarnished, with
a perpetually widening gap between the rulers and the ruled. At no
other time in the past has the possibility for political upheavals
and changes been greater. It is no exaggeration to suggest that the
power base of Arab regimes is in great danger, as has been
evidenced by the massive demonstrations and protests against
Sharon's atrocities, even in the most conservative and traditional
Arab societies. The Arab masses' pre-occupation with their
hard-earned daily living is turning into boiling frustration and
expressions of anger, hate and hostility, not only toward Israel,
but also towards the US, for its obdurately unfavorable policies
toward the Palestinians. To a large extent, as a function of
Sharon's brutalities, the US has become "the enemy." Even the
definition of the conflict as a Palestinian-Israeli or Arab-Israeli
one has begun to wither, to the benefit of another replacement:
"the Palestinian-American" or "Arab-American" conflict. The
atmosphere in the Muslim world is not much different: a growing
campaign of antagonism toward Israel and the US.
Due to its unbending backing of Israeli policies, whatever they are
and however they are conducted, it is short-sighted and actually
misleading to expect that the anger and frustration will not be
reflected on American soil, rendering American interests, not only
abroad, but also domestically, vulnerable and desired
targets.
Thanks to Sharon's miscalculations, Israel, which thus far may have
been viewed as America's greatest strategic asset in the Middle
East, is, with time, becoming America's unbearable burden. The gain
derived from the strategic relationship between the US and Israel
is being gradually outweighed by the losses. Even an opportunistic
individual and/or group that is at issue with the US for other
reasons, might manipulate and utilize the grave deterioration in
the Middle East to help achieve its objectives, whatever they may
be.
Thus, while managing to climb up the ladder of Israeli leadership
despite his reputation for brutality, Sharon's promises of security
and stability have not been short-lived and fantasy-ridden for
Israelis only, but also for the Arab political system in its
entirety, as well as for the US. The "euphoria" in Israel following
Sharon's latest intrusion into and occupation of Palestinian
territories might very well be replaced by the greatest defeat
Israel will have to live with, as it previously had in Lebanon,
albeit about 20 years after the euphoric sense of victory Sharon
thought he had achieved during Israel's invasion of Lebanon in
1982. Even if Sharon were to talk about peace in the Middle East,
stability does not seem to be near and the image of the US as the
broker of peace can only be tarnished further in the Arab
world.
Only Military Force
Sharon is determined to manage the conflict with the Palestinians
only by military force and not through negotiations. He conditions
his involvement in any political process by changing the
Palestinian leadership, i.e., by ousting the symbol of Palestinian
struggle and nationalism, Arafat. He spares no effort in relying on
a strategy of military preponderance against the Palestinians
wherever and whenever he can. It is expected, therefore, that his
military tendencies will be further entrenched as a function of his
feeling of personal exhilaration due to his role in acquiring close
to one-third of the seats of the Israeli Knesset for his party in
the last elections. Triumphalism combined with his ideological
orientation and military background might very well lower his
partisan concerns and ambitions while writing, most probably, the
last chapter of his political life against the Palestinians, a
chapter that will most likely be characterized by more ferocity.
After all, he has obtained public trust in a way, which no other
Israeli leader has ever done, especially during times of crises.
Sharon succeeded in getting re-elected in the midst of one of the
bloodiest phases in Israeli history, where Israeli security has
almost become null and void. In effect, this is baffling as the
state of Israeli security is completely contrary to what Sharon
promised the Israelis it would become in the 2001 elections.
Indeed, Sharon possesses the tools, the know-how and the power to
inflict irreparable harm and damage onto Palestinian society. And
whether this makes him a man of peace or a man of war, he, by his
deeds, has made the idea of peace unfathomable, at least for
decades to come. Israelis, as well as Palestinians, and perhaps
many others, will have to pay for what Sharon has symbolized, the
greatest threat to local, regional and world stability. The "peace
of the rulers," even if superimposed, stands no chance of
enforcement and success under the present recipe of conditions and
circumstances.
The Power of Reason
Hope for change, however, lies primarily with the ability of
Israeli public opinion to view its destiny as one linked with that
of the Palestinians, since Sharon can deliver neither security nor
stability. Military power may achieve short-term objectives, but
lasting solutions certainly require human creativity, intuition and
innovation. No form of repression and/or suppression is capable of
stopping the Palestinian people's drive for freedom and
independence. The prolongation and deepening of "Sharonism" in
Israeli society can only move the clock backward. Without any
doubt, the power of reason is bound to have more beneficial,
far-reaching effects than the power of weapons. Only when despair
dissipates, does hope for the future take over.