Recent events have created a new situation in the Middle East,
which is opening the door to a new opportunity. Yasser Arafat, as
the unchallenged Palestinian leader, could have led a peace
initiative - had he so wished. For his heirs, it will be much more
difficult, but their commitment to peace is unwavering, as is their
opposition to the continuation of an armed intifada. Had Senator
John Kerry been elected U.S. president, in all likelihood he would
have led a new political process, even sending a special envoy to
the region to get the parties back to the negotiating table and
assist them in their talks. But until he established his presidency
precious time would have elapsed, and there is no doubt that his
concerns regarding his re-election in 2008 would have caused him to
be extra cautious.
Abbas and Qurei - Powerful Joint Axis
The situation that has developed is that Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen)
as leader and Ahmad Qurei (Abu 'Ala) as prime minister have created
a powerful joint axis, which is enjoying extensive Palestinian
support in the pragmatic, secular camp. If the Sharon government
assists them, wisely rather than heavy-handedly, if it conducts a
dialogue with them regarding the withdrawal from Gaza and if it
makes concessions in areas such as the release of security
prisoners and the dismantling of a significant number of the
Israeli army checkpoints on the outskirts of the Palestinian towns,
then the two will get a strong boost and will be able to prove
their ability to deliver the goods to the Palestinian public.
The main challenges facing them are to secure their rule in the
West Bank and in Gaza, to consolidate the security forces, to
guarantee law and order and to negotiate a cease-fire with the
Islamic groups. Obviously, this won't happen overnight, but it is
indeed possible.
President George W. Bush doesn't need to wait before assuming an
active role in the Middle East. He has an excellent relationship
with Mahmoud Abbas, and has made no attempt to conceal his positive
personal attitude toward him. At this point in time, he is likely
to demand that both parties fulfill their role in the Road Map, and
he may well demand that Ariel Sharon conduct negotiations with the
Palestinian leadership, with regard to the Gaza Strip as well as
the permanent-status agreement.
Over the last 10 years, we have missed many opportunities. We have
engaged in mutual blame-casting, and in most cases, attributed the
reason for the stalemate and the deterioration in the situation to
the other side. We were very close to an agreement in 2000, but we
saw this opportunity slip away in the autumn of 2000 with the
outbreak of the intifada. The Clinton-Arafat-Barak triangle could
have reached a permanent-status agreement. The Bush-Sharon-Abu
Mazen triangle will find this task much more difficult: Bush is far
less determined than Clinton; Sharon does not believe there is a
partner and does not believe in a permanent-status agreement; and
Abu Mazen, who does believe in such an agreement, is not as strong
as Arafat and will find it difficult to persuade the Palestinian
street to agree to compromises.
nexpected Heroes of History?
History, however, is full of examples where fateful decisions were
made in unexpected circumstances by unexpected people, often swept
along by the dynamics that they themselves created, into decisions
that they did not intend to make. It is possible that this triangle
will make the historic decision that will bring about the end of
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. At the present time, the task of
the Israeli peace camp is to struggle to bring about the
abandonment of unilateral measures and movement forward to
intensive dialogue and cooperation. The Geneva Draft Accord of
December 2003, in which Israelis and Palestinians proposed a model
of a permanent-status agreement, caused Sharon - by his own
admission - to initiate the withdrawal from Gaza, and now we, the
creators and supporters of the initiative, must put pressure on
Sharon so that he will not stop at the withdrawal from Gaza, but
will go on to support moves on the path to a permanent-status
agreement as per the Geneva Initiative.