Various surveys have been conducted in the West Bank and Gaza Strip
to determine the type of government system the Palestinian people
would prefer in a future Palestinian state. These have invariably
indicated a high preference for an Islamic-style state. This type
of answer, however, is vague and can give rise to a range of
interpretations. An Islamic state might refer to the Iranian model,
or, perhaps, the Saudi Arabian system. For others, an Islamic state
might point to one that adheres strictly to the principles of
Islam, one that is free of corruption, and where justice and
tolerance are the governing tenets. In other words, an Islamic
state could mean different things to different people.
In order to avoid such pitfalls and to more accurately gauge
Palestinian preferences, it was considered more advisable to ask
the Palestinian respondents after which country in the world they
would like Palestine to be modeled. Thus, their answer would give a
good indication of their choice and whether they would opt for a
democratic state.
The following analysis is based on a survey conducted by the
Institute of Development Studies in Geneva, Switzerland, and is
part of the eighth report produced by this institute on Palestinian
perceptions about their living conditions. (1)
The respondents were asked several questions pertaining to various
political issues. The question dealing with how the Palestinians
would like the future state of Palestine to look was open-ended.
The respondents were allowed to name any country as their model of
preference. This paper will focus on this particular question which
has also been examined according to a number of independent
variables, such as political affiliation, age, income, employment
status and place of residence.
The Respondents in General
As Table 1 (below) indicates, 58 countries and entities were
mentioned by the respondents. Egypt and Saudi Arabia were the ones
most frequently cited with 9 percent each, followed by France, with
8 percent, then the U.S.A., Jordan and Iran, each with 7 percent,
and 7 percent said they would like Palestine to be modeled after
the Islamic caliphate system.
Interestingly, a number of respondents (6 percent) said they would
like Palestine to be modeled after Israel.
The above list of countries was then classified into seven
different categories to allow for practical analysis:
* Arab states
* Western states
* Israel
* Islamic caliphate
* Islamic non-Arab states
* Communist countries
* Others
Following this classification, it emerged that 44 percent of the
respondents would like Palestine to be modeled after an Arab
government, 31 percent said they would like Palestine to emulate a
Western system of government, 10 percent cited Islamic non-Arab
states, 7 percent showed a preference for an Islamic caliphate, and
2 percent chose Communist countries, as indicated in Figure 1 (
below).
It is worth noting that the countries most frequently cited are
those with immediate proximity to Palestine (Jordan, Egypt,
Israel), or those Palestinians visit often, such as Saudi Arabia,
for pilgrimage or for work. In-depth analysis of the data further
showed that 76 percent of those who selected Jordan were from the
West Bank and 60 percent of those who chose Egypt came from the
Gaza Strip. As for those who preferred Saudi Arabia, 57 percent
were from the Gaza Strip compared to 41 percent from the West
Bank.
According to Region and Place of Residence
No significant difference was noted between the inhabitants of the
West Bank and the Gaza Strip regarding their preference for either
an Arab or a Western system of government. The main divergence came
in East Jerusalem, where a majority of Palestinian Jerusalemites
chose a Western system of government for Palestine to emulate. When
it came to the refugee camps, the data indicated that the Gaza
Strip refugee camps stood out as the place where respondents were
least likely to opt for a Western-style model for Palestine. While
only 22 percent of the respondents cited a Western government, the
percentage rose to 32 among West Bank refugee camps, as shown in
Figure 2 (below).
According to Income and Employment Status
When it comes to the level of income and employment status of the
respondents, a striking discrepancy was found between the
economically better-off and the low-income group in the choice of a
model. As Figure 3 (below) illustrates, the highest preference for
the respondents classified above the poverty line was the Western
system of government with 42 percent and nt for an Arab state
model.
Conversely, the preference for a Western-style government among
respondents from below the poverty line and outright hardship cases
dropped to 23 percent and 22 percent, respectively.
When the data was analyzed according to the employment status of
the respondents, it emerged that 41 percent of those with full-time
employment preferred a Western system of government for Palestine
and only 36 percent an Arab system. Expectedly, among the
respondents not fully employed or those unemployed, an Arab system
of government was chosen over a Western one.
According to Age and Education
The type of government system chosen by Palestinians was also found
to be influenced by the age of the respondents and even more so by
their level of education. As illustrated in Figure 4 (below) the
preference for an Arab-style government was higher among the older
generation than among the younger. Whereas 49 percent of the above
50-year-old respondents said they preferred an Arab government
model, the percentage dropped to 38 among the 18-24 age
group.
The gap also widened when the responses were analyzed according to
their level of education. While only 17 percent with a lower level
of education said they preferred a Western-style government in
Palestine, 38 percent among the more highly educated would like to
see a Western system of government. Those with a medium level of
education came between these two extremes as shown in Figure 4.
Accordingly, it can be inferred that the higher the education level
of the respondents, the more likely they are to prefer a
Western-style government for Palestine.
According to Leadership and Factional Trust
When the preference for a system of government was cross-checked
with the faction the respondents trust most the choice of an
Islamic system was found to be most prevalent among supporters of
religious factions as expected. As Figure 5 shows, the respondents
who called for a caliphate system in Palestine came mainly from
among those trusting Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Even when respondents
named non-Islamic states, such as Iran, as their preference, it was
noted that they came mainly from those supporting the religious
organizations. That said, it is interesting that a significant
proportion of respondents - almost one-quarter - from among Hamas
and Islamic Jihad supporters mentioned a Western system as their
model of choice.
Very few respondents trusting Fateh, on the other hand, chose
non-Arab Islamic states or an Islamic system of government based on
the Islamic caliphate. The majority (54 percent) cited an Arab
government as the model they would like Palestine to follow.
The type of system Palestinians would like to see adopted by their
state is also influenced by which leadership Palestinians trust
most. Upon examination, it was noted that the preference for a
Western-style government was significantly higher among the
respondents trusting Yasser Arafat compared to, for example, those
trusting Sheikh Ahmad Yassin who, incidentally, was assassinated by
the Israelis only days after the finalization of the field work for
this report. Whereas 34 percent of those trusting Arafat said they
would like Palestine to be modeled after one of the Western
countries, the proportion of the respondents trusting Sheikh Yassin
was exactly half.
Conclusion
The Palestinian public's choice of a system of government they
would like to see implemented in the future Palestinian state is
clearly influenced by a number of factors, including education,
employment and income, among others.
In any event, a substantial percentage of respondents showed a
clear preference for a Western-style government. Such a choice is,
undoubtedly, based on certain expectations that a Western model is
purported to provide or deliver. This approach can only be
interpreted as a sign of political maturity among the Palestinian
public. It obviously points to a high degree of appreciation for
the values inherent in a democratic system, and flies in the face
of the many negative portrayals of the Arab public, including
allegations of its rejection of democratic values.
(1) The study, entitled Palestinian Public Perceptions on Their
Living Conditions, was published in December 2004. It is authored
by R. Bocco, M. Brunner, I. Daneels, J. Husseini, F. Lapeyre and J.
Rabah.The report is the eighth of its kind and is based on a public
opinion poll, conducted in February 2004, of a randomly selected
sample of 1,500 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
