Starting the Oslo process we had one major goal in mind: to break
the Israeli-Palestinian deadlock and achieve a breakthrough in
Israeli-Arab relations. As Israelis, our strategic aim was to set
down principles which would lead to a peace process with the
Palestinians. The political situation was one of stagnation and
stalemate, a seemingly impenetrable cycle of frustration. Oslo
offered an innovative approach, set aside so-called
"per¬ceived wisdom" and created a new set of circumstances
more conducive to the attainment of peace.
Oslo was achieved with calculated risks for both sides based on the
expectation of a win-win situation and mutual trust. We convinced
the Palestinians that at the Israeli decision-making level there
was a genuine desire to reach a settlement based on security, and
an interest in helping the Palestinians to reach a strong, stable,
and prosperous entity of their own. In return, the Palestinian
negotiators convinced us that their leader¬ship realized that
terror and armed struggle would not bring them closer to their
dream, and that the only solution was reconciliation and political
dialogue.
An Aim Accomplished
The situation now (winter 1995) is very difficult, particularly
with the memories of September 1993 still fresh. While the
situation is far from being as bad as it was pre-Oslo, there are
certain similarities. Most notice¬ably there is again, a need
for new approaches to breaking deadlocks, for innovation, and for
courageous leCidership.
In spite of all current difficulties, I believe that the strategic
aim of Oslo, i.e., to break the deadlock and achieve a
breakthrough, was fully accom¬plished. Consequently, we are in
the midst of a political process which is the only serious way
forward, hopefully leading to peace between Israel and the
Palestinians. Moreover, Israel and Jordan signed a treaty of peace
which would not have been reached without the Oslo process; Israel
opened interest and liaison offices and established other official
and non¬official ties with Arab states in North Africa and the
Gulf and with Muslim and Third World countries around the
world.
From the Palestinian point of view, I believe that the most
important achievement is the fact that they have for the first time
a real hope to fulfill their national aspiration. A Palestinian
National Authority (PNA) is active on the ground, establishing
quasi-state institutions and establishing legiti¬macy for its
future entity (probably a state-to-be). Moreover, like Israel, the
Palestinians achieved legitimacy around the world, especially in
the American public and Administration, as well as with the
international business community.
As I see it, almost nothing is sacred; neither the papers and
documents which were signed in Oslo, nor the principles agreed
upon, or even the deadlines and the target dates set. The only
thing which is sacred in this process is the pursuit of and need to
reach peace. If the price of reaching peace means changing some
principles of the Oslo agreement, it should be agreed upon
immediately by the two sides and implemented as soon as possible.
If the Oslo agreement has to be revised in order to get to peace,
let the two sides sit together and discuss matters with the same
positive spirit which led the negotiations in Oslo.
The Current Malaise
The current situation is primarily gloomy because of the mood of
depres¬sion in the two respective constituencies and the
deterioration of the support base amongst those who were swept into
supporting the process after the historic handshake of September
13, 1993. Those who have always opposed the peace process maintain
their criticism, and this is true for both sides. But the present
situation is turning into a vicious circle. Israeli Occupation,
with all its humiliating aspects, continues everywhere except in
Gaza and Jericho, which persuades the Palestinians that their
expecta¬tions were not met. On the other hand are the Israelis
who realize that most of their high expectations have not been
fulfilled either.
The current vicious circle is characterized by Palestinian acts of
terror which means less security for Israelis; Isra~l in turn makes
things difficult for the Palestinians. These restrictions, like
closures, which are imposed on the Palestinians, exacerbate
frustration and despair in Gaza and the West Bank, which in turn
strengthens opposition support and makes it even more difficult for
the PNA to act against terrorism. As a result, Israelis
per¬ceive the PNA as not acting in order to thwart terror,
leading to disillu¬sionment in the process, and pressure on
the Palestinian leadership to vio¬lently clamp down on the
opposition - which seems today impossible ¬until the next bomb
explodes. This in turn sets the cycle in motion again.
In the eyes of the Israeli public, the Oslo agreement means that
"in return, above all, for one important thing, security, we will
give them (the Palestinians) an entity, help in economic
development, and grant legitimacy." Israelis are ready to concede
an awful lot in return for peace and security. Popular Israeli
opinion holds that the Declaration of Principles (DOP) was not
signed out of a sudden Israeli love for Palestinians, or out of a
sudden understanding of the Palestinian political demands, but
rather out of a belief that the process will provide each
individual more security and bet¬ter quality of life. If the
price for achieving this is a Palestinian state, so be it.
The Impact of Terror
Muslim fundamentalist terror is not the direct outcome of poverty
and low GNP. However, on the Palestinian side, the support for
terror cannot be divorced from the perception that there has been
no visible improvement in the social and economic conditions of
daily life since the implementation of self-rule. This
socio-economically motivated frustration and despair, already
prevalent prior to Oslo, may have even been heightened by the
thwarted expectations since the Israeli withdrawal. The
territories, mainly the Gaza Strip, need massive economic aid and
investments which will change the whole face of this process.
Although economic measures will not stop terrorism, it is clear
that even the best political solution will not work under
conditions of social and economic despair.
On the Israeli side, the impact of the ongoing terror attacks on
public opinion, and consequently the context within which Israeli
political deci¬sions are made, cannot be underestimated. Prime
Minister Rabin was eled¬ed because he was "Mr. Security," but
now the public perceives that he has not delivered security. The
Israeli public does not distinguish, nor care, which Palestinian
group is trying to undermine the peace process. Without serious
police and security activity on behalf of the PNA, the Israelis
will hold Arafat responsible for their undermined security
situation and the state of psychological siege.
Thus Israel's ability to deliver on its promises has declined
because of its problems with its own constituency. Rabin cannot
promise the Palestinians that if they "behave," at the end of the
road they will have a state. The Palestinian public does not
understand this and wants to hear it said explicitly. Rabin, who is
not in a position to say this, hints at it instead,
par¬ticularly when he talks of separation.
Yet in many respects, Israeli opposition to the Oslo accords has
barely begun and real opposition will be seen when withdrawal and
dismantling of settlements starts. At present we only hear threats
from the extreme right wing; in the future, not just talk but
action can be expected.
This then outlines the current malaise. However, one should not
deny the unquestionable achievements of the Israeli-PNA
cooperation. On the bureaucratic level there is greater openness
between offices of various min¬istries as well as an increased
readiness for serious political dialogue. A fine example, to the
surprise of many, of Palestinian-Israeli cooperation is the joint
patrols of the Palestinian and Israeli security forces. Moreover,
national reconciliation is a real and ongoing process, making
considerable achievements in its slow path. There are many more
ties today between Israelis and Palestinians and many more fruitful
dialogues. These new ties are in the field of human resources,
development programs, joint communal health planning, medical
training, economic and business cooperation, etc. But all this is
unfortunately dwarfed by the sense of malaise felt by both
sides.
As a result of the opposition to the process, there is a sense of
mutual mis¬trust among the masses of people on both sides. It
is human nature to gen¬eralize, and in the eyes of many
Israelis" all Arabs think the same; they all hate us." On the other
hand, if a soldier humiliates an Arab at a roadblock, in the eyes
of many Palestinians "all the soldiers humiliate them." If a
Palestinian cannot get his child to East Jerusalem for an operation
because he is stopped at the roadblock imposed as a result of the
closure, why should he believe in the peace process?
A Possible Way Out
The Oslo principles are based on a recipe of an immediate
agreement, fol¬lowed by an interim period and then a final
settlement. This formula of a time frame of two years for the first
period, followed by the start of talks on final settlement, with an
entire interim period of five years, can be changed. This time
frame was inherited from the 1978 Camp David accords which was
signed by Menachem Begin seventeen years ago. It was adopted by us
in Oslo mainly because we felt that it was a language
under¬stood and accepted in Israel, not necessarily because
five years is better than four or three years.
If this model, this framework, becomes itself an obstacle during
its imple¬mentation, then both sides should recreate the model
more suited to deliv¬ering peace and security within the new
context and reality. We are now, in effect, at a point where every
year that passes is to the detriment of the process. A way to solve
the interim period problem is to enter immediate¬ly into
intensive talks on final-status issues, in order to achieve
possible disengagement and final settlement as fast as
possible.
Final status could mean a Palestinian state, preferably
confederated to Jordan. In this respect, an interesting Israeli
paradox exists: on the one hand, most Israelis oppose the creation
of a Palestinian state; on the other hand, they believe its
creation is inevitable. Thus, one should consider, for example,
whether Israel, which for the first time has a government that
wants to help the Palestinians, should declare at the start of the
final-status negotiations that, under acceptable conditions, it
will not oppose a Palestinian state.
Two Approaches
We need to capitalize on the momentum gained to date, and create
irre¬versible facts before the 1996 elections, in case an
ultra-right-wing govern¬ment comes to power in Israel. The
Israeli opposition has no real alterna¬tives to the current
process, and the Likud has no magic formula for halt¬ing
terror. The only alternative to a political solution is stalemate
which will bring many more years of bloodshed. The Israeli public
can be con¬vinced that both sides must push forward while
taking serious measures to protect its 5ecurity.
Thus, today, we need to embrace a whole new approach in order to
achieve final settlement as quickly as possible, and address all
the difficult subjects: Jerusalem, settlements, refugees, borders,
security arrangements, water, etc. We can ill-afford a situation
where public opinion leads the process. Ben¬Gurion provides a
historical precedent of a leader who achieved his aims, even when
he was in the minority. In 1993, Israeli public opinion
vehement¬ly opposed talks with the PLO, as it was viewed as a
terrorist organization, yet the government decided to negotiate
with it. The vital importance of leading the public, and not being
led by it, is relevant for both communities.
Two possible approaches exist: to progress gradually and hopefully
counter the erosion of public support, or to enter an accelerated
process and carry the public along. It is my belief that the only
approach is to move quickly, leading the public. In taking this
approach, the Palestinian National Authority should take all
possible legal procedures and security actions to curb the militant
opposition and fight terrorism; while the Government of Israel
should adopt a more generous and flexible attitude toward the
Palestinians, even involving calculated risks, and the Israeli
public must recognize that terror will not disappear altogether.
The point is to pursue a certain policy, with the risks involved,
now, in order to pre¬vent an endless war. All these decisions
should be proactive decisions, not frustrated reactions to a
situation seemingly out of control. It is possible to give the
Israeli security services and military more power, but it should be
remembered that the Palestinian police force is Israel's ally in
fighting ter¬rorism and Israel needs to give it more
support.
To conclude, even now, it is safe and realistic to assume that at
the end of the final settlement there will probably be two states,
hopefully enjoying open borders, free trade, and
Israeli-Palestinian geo-strategic cooperation.