As the second legislative elections of the year have swept through Israel, the question of whether anything has changed remains. The results are still too close to call and the weary process of trying to form a coalition is beginning. This political deadlock adds to the feelings of instability in Israel’s faltering democracy. It may still go both ways, either in eliminating Netanyahu and forming a more left-wing coalition (which does not necessarily mean a movement toward a sustainable resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but at least does not deliberately block such attempts). On the other hand, Netanyahu’s political prowess may just keep him afloat with a right-wing coalition leaning on ultra-Orthodox votes.
The voter turnout, however, is an overwhelmingly positive factor in this elections, it is marginally higher than last time around, a surprising feat given the fears of expected voter fatigue felt by the population. This bodes well for those wishing for dialogue and sustainable peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis. Voter turnout is an important factor in any elections, but especially in such a polarised country. The fragmentation leads to a number of parties not reaching the 3.25% electoral threshold needed to pass into the Knesset, which can make or break the coalition. The tendency for portions of the population to boycott the elections or vote as a bloc (the Ultra-Orthodox Haredim vote as their Rabbi instructs), often distorts the effectiveness of democratic processes. Some Arab Israelis often boycott the Israeli elections for several reasons, such as the fear of normalisation of the occupation of Palestine, the racism experienced by the Arab minority and disillusionment with the government seen as actively neglecting this demographic.
The turnout: what worked?
The total voter turnout on September 17th was around 69% or 4,329,259 voters according to the Central Electoral Committee. This is a significant number, especially given the fears that voters may not be bothered to turn up to the polls for the second time in 5 months. The Arab Israeli voter turnout also rose in relation to the last elections from 49% (an all-time low) to 60% this time around. Various reasons can be cited for this positive outcome. On the national scale, the State of Israel put significant effort into encouraging citizens to go to the polls. The day of the elections was a national holiday and free public transportation was offered throughout the country. These techniques appear to have yielded results, as the national level of voter turnout was quite high, especially in comparison to the declining political engagement in Western Europe (notably to the French legislative election which gathered only a 48% turnout).
On the Israeli Arab side, the opposite can be said in terms of voter agitation from the State of Israel. Reports of intimidation and Netanyahu’s anti-Arab Campaigning were notable in the run up to the vote, most prominently with Netanyahu’s call for cameras in polling stations and allegations of ‘stealing’ the election. This messaging from the right-wing parties of the Knesset and in the media was meant to exacerbate the Arab’s apathy and distrust, especially in young people. Conversely, the revival of the Joint List (consisting of four Arab-Israeli parties) and active encouragement to vote yielded the opposite result, with a 10% increase in the Arab community’s turnout to the polls. As a result of the low turnout in April, Arab Israeli activists organised campaigns to encourage voting. A joint effort by 11 active civil society organizations created Coalition 17/9 for this purpose with nearly 600 volunteers active on election day.
The results and what they reveal
The only clear thing about the results is that Benny Gantz’s Kahol Lavan (Blue and White) and Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud are almost tied (33 for Gantz, 31 for Netanyahu) and will have to put considerable effort to gain the 61-seat majority through coalition. What has also emerged is the fact the Joint List has come in third place with 13 seats in the Knesset. As the Arab parties historically do not join Israeli coalitions, Avigdor Lieberman’s 8 seat secular right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu may again hold the winning card to form a coalition. Nevertheless, 13 seats are a significant win for the Arab Israeli population, as the achievement of the Joint List, along with the high voter turnout, point toward a hopeful and active civil society, which is represented by a (more) unified group of politicians. It would also begin a much overdue process of granting more legitimacy and inclusion to Arab members of Knesset, which, despite not being in the coalition could support it from the outside which would be mutually beneficial.
Furthermore, with Netanyahu’s (relative) political failure, there are positive signs of the ‘anti-Bibi’ Gantz in creating dialogue with the Arab members of Knesset. On the evening of election day, Gantz made a phone call to Joint List leader MK Ayman Odeh to congratulate him, making it ‘the first time a leader of his stature had made such a gesture to the head of an Arab party, and it sends a very positive message’ as noted by Dr. Thabet Abu Rass, co-director of the Abraham Initiatives. Odeh himself responded positively stating that ‘the direction is very clear, we want to replace the Netanyahu government, but at the same time we are not in anyone’s pocket’. This line was continued by the Joint List recommending Gantz to President Rivlin as the next Prime Minister, a move not seen since 1992, although the 3 Balad members later withdrew their recommendation, which demonstrates a certain lack of consensus between the parties making up the Joint List.
The significance of the Arab vote
The significance of the Arab population in Israel when casting votes is not surprising given that they make up 20% of its residents. What is surprising is the turnout in this election despite their relative apathy and distrust of the Knesset. The implications of this high voter turnout and the Arab vote can be seen in two separate examples from either of the elections this year. In April, the fact that the left-wing Meretz party made it over the 3.25% threshold was largely attributed to the Arab vote. Out of all the Jewish parties in that election, it was the most popular among the Arab voters.
Similarly, in this election, Kahol Lavan won more Arab votes than Meretz. This turned out to be crucial for Gantz’s party in gaining seats over the Likud. This is an overall positive move for the Arab population of Israel, as well as the Palestinians. Odeh said that he is hopeful that it will ‘overthrow the right-wing government’ as well as ‘prevent racism, annexation and the destruction of democracy.’ Thus, the importance of a high Arab turnout is highlighted and bodes well both for Israelis and Palestinians who want a more peaceful coexistence and justice.
On the other hand, while a Gantz government might relatively improve the Arab Israeli living conditions, neither a hard right, hard left or (most likely) centre unity coalition in the Knesset promises much change to the plight of the Palestinians under occupation or issues of internally displaced Arab Israelis. While it can be agreed that anyone other than Netanyahu is a better option for Arab Israelis and their high turnout will bring about positive change, the lack of coherent expectations from the elections on the Palestinian side portends more of the same. Tareq Baconi of International Crisis Group stays negative in noting that ‘the threat of annexation is not limited to Netanyahu and the failure of the peace process is not the result of recent rightward shifts within Israel’ and the general feeling is that the Palestinians are simply not a significant issue in the Knesset. While some economic and social improvements may occur, they are still terms of imprisonment and not freedom.
Thus, at this stage, there is a feeling of hope and achievement as a result of the high turnout and hopes for a post-Bibi improvement of the currently very frayed Israeli democracy. No military escalation has happened, Netanyahu is fighting for survival and the 69% of Israeli citizens who voted have shown their wish for democracy and stability in their lives. The Arab vote contributed significantly to this and is a positive sign for the Arab Israeli population, and it might just work in the Palestinians’ favour as well. On the other hand, Netanyahu’s influence and departure are not guaranteed, and US President Trump’s promises to unveil his ‘Middle East plan’ after the election are still hanging in the air. Thus, the air is clearer and more hopeful on this side of the polls, but the storm has definitely not passed yet.
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